Kentucky Derby 2012

1 Daddy Long Legs (30-1) He is a turfer than ran on that synthetic  shit over in Dubai for a score in the UAE Derby G2 on March 31. I just can not see him able to fire his best on dirt at Churchill Downs against colts that ahve run their entire careers on dirt. His BC Juvenile run would attest to that and only one prep race for the Derby? I’m passing

2 Optimizer (50-1) 1 for 9 career wise and his only win was his maiden on turf. Trainer D Wayne Lukas is reaching here but given his history, throw a dollar or two on him (will you go poor on it? No). If he gets up for 2nd like he did in The Rebel G2 and he’s in your exacta mix, when you’re having dinner at a steak house you can order an even etter bottle of wine

3 Take Charge Indy (15-1) Florida Derby winner that wired the field which included Union Rags (9-2). You can be sure Calvin Borel will ride him close to the rail to save ground. A legitmate contender that will be up front on the pace.

4 Union Rags (9-2) I liked this colt since the day he won the Sartoga Special as a two year old. The BC Juvenile was his for the taking until he deceided to look zig zag his way home much to the horrror of myself and others at the Bar 360 Lounge at Aqueduct. Only consolation was hearing some guy from Ireland with a few hipsters behind me scream “Da fookin foive”. He can atone for his sin that day.

5 Dullahan (8-1) ”Another turfer”* that has run on that synthethic shit for a score in his last. Has a late running kick and did get up for 4th in the BC Juvenile last November.

6 Bodemeister (4-1) His Beyers just jump off the page at you and he beat Secret Circle who was my early prediction to win this race. He will be up front on the pace and yes, trainer Bob Baffert is a bit overdue for a Derby score. My question si why were his connections afraid of running him in the Santa Anita Derby? Creative Cause and I’ll Have ANoeth will offer much more “value”

7 Rousing Sermon (50-1) Now if I was a priest, this horse would be named after me as I have such a talent for biblical exegesis. This colt has not won since the 29th of October 2011. He’s running in this race to grab a check underneath as 3rd or 4th. If he wins,

8 Creative Cause  (12-1) Finished second to I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby G1 and beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe G2 who then ran off to Arkansas for an easy score in the Arkansas Derby. 3rd in the BC Juvenile over this surface

9 Trinniberg (50-1) He will be on the pace from the get go and will probably be underbet given his connections. Could he running as a rabbit to have the race collapse and set up for a closer? I see him tiring and finishing up the track

10 Daddy Nose Best (15-1) Has some late kick and climbing Beyers in his last three races and has won his last two. One of the four to have a triple digit Beyer (Daddy Long Legs, Bodemeister, and El Padrino being the others)

11 Alpha (15-1) An Aqueduct inner track runner that finished second in The Wood Memorial after being checked in the first turn. He ran a game race only to be fended off by Gemologist. I’m a New Yorker and I think The Wood Memorial is long overdue for producing a Derby winner. I think he will be overlooked in the betting.

12 Prospective (20-1) Finished 6th in The Blue Grass. 4 of 8 lifetime (50%) but can’t see him winning this one

13 Went the Day Well (20-1) First blinkers? 28% Blinkers on? 30% Johnny V up too. Probably will take action because of last year.

14 Hansen (10-1) Has Ramon Dominguez up and will be sitting on the pace. Just because he scored The Gotham on the inner track is NOT his fault so he might be under valued however, his connections chose to run on that synthetic shit at Keeneland in The Blue Grass AND DIDN’T WIN. Was he afraid to take on the NY runners?

15 Gemologist  (6-1) Won The Wood Memorial and fended off a good horse in the stretch in Alpha. Javier Castellano up and posted a bullet workout on April 29 and yes, he is undefeated. He’s ready.

16 El Padrino (20-1) Has a triple digit Beyer….in a OC 75k/N1x race and won the G2 Risen Star. Collected checks in the Florida Derby (4th) and the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct

17 Done Talking  (50-1) Closed well in the Illinois Derby (remeber War Emblem?) Third start of the form cycle and a good workpout BUT given his Gotham run he’s not ready to step up to the big leagues

18 Sabercat (30-1) Showed improvement in his last two races but won neither. That 92 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby against a horse fearful of running the Santa Anita Derby makes him loook all the less worth playing.

19 I’ll Have Another (12-1) Santa Anita Dery winner sitting on the pace gets no respect. Makes me want to bet the New York runners all the more
20 Liason (50-1) That 6th place finish in the SA Derby and 4th in the San Felipe as well as losing his jockey in thre RB Lewis makes me want to single him in every multi race wager. Yes I am sarcastic so expect him to be the longest price on the oard

AE 21 My Adonis Another one looking to pick up a check rather than win

Final Analysis:
Take Charge Indy, Bodemeister, Trinninberg, Hansen, go right to the front with Gemologist, Daddy Longs, Unions Rags, Rousing Sermon, Creative Cause, Alpha, Went the Day Well, I’ll Have Another, El Padrino, and Liason sitting in just off the pace or in mid pack, while Optimizer, Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, Prospective, Done Talking, and Sabercat Bring up the rear. I think Trinninberg will function as something of a rabbit and run a race of a half mile at full throttle. When the cavalry charge enters the lane, this race should set up for Alpha’s late kick and I also see Gemologist, Creative Cause, Union Rags, and Hansen crossing the wire as the smoke clears. If Trinniberg causes the race to collapse, I’ll be sure to have Optimzer, Sabercat, and El Padrino on a ticket (remember Giacomo in 2005 at 55-1?)

*”Another turfer?” is exactly what I said about Animal Kingdom in 2011

Aqueduct, Saturday April 7

Wood Memorial Day at Aqueduct: the day where I just think of wanting to sell my Derby futures ticket on I Want Revenge after his score but two “friends” talked me out of it. Thanks friends: I Want Revenge never ran in the Derby. I won’t be able to get to the track until the 6th race so my picks are from the 6th race on. If I was to place win bets, the horses I’d bet will be highlighted. As usual, it’s doubles and pick 3s for my plays. So here we go

Race 6: Alw 77000N1X
I will not be playing the Pick 6 thankfully as the ticket may be too rich for my blood but I can see a speed duel between 4 Majestic Hope, 5 Macho Dorado, 9 Le Bernardin and it may set up right for  7 Game Token, 8 Cosmic King, or 11 Cribnote.

Race 7: The 63rd running of The Comely G3. Purse $250,000
This looks like a one horse race to me so 1 Broadway’s Alibi is the horse to beat. Looking at the numbers, she should look like Brittney Griner against everyone else. Can she be caught? We are talking horse racing so the answer is yes but the Bill Mott trained 2 Off Limits is third of form and shows promise with the climbing Beyers and the equipment change to blinkers.

Race 8: The 52nd running of The Bay Shore G3. Purse $250,000
6 Hardened Wildcat is my pick as he’s a closer by Hard Spun and there’s plenty of speed in this race to set up for him . 1 Trinniberg, 2nd off & Swale winner should be involved in a hot pace with 2 Perfect Trippi, 3 Copy My Swagger, 5 King and Crusader (juiced by Dick Dutrow ahem, I  mean “trained”), and 8 How Do I Win. Could Trinni tired and reeled in by Hardened Wildcat? I think it should happen.

Race 9: The 88th Running of The Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial G1. Purse $1,000,000
1 Alpha was a monster in The Withers and his connection were plotting the Derby path through this race,  we all respect trainer Kiaran McGlaughlin, and that 91 Beyer needs to be respected but 6 Gemologist (2nd off, undefeated, 95 Beyer, bullet work, breeding, trainer wins 28% 2nd off, and Captain Javier in the irons) is a definite play.

Let the record show that Brad Free has Gemologist, Mike Watchmaker has My Adonis, Dave Litfin has Gemologist, and Mike Welsch has My Adonis. All are of Daily Racing Form and at 8-1, 3 My Adonis is worth throwing into ones mix.

Race 10: The 112th running of The Carter Handicap G1. Purse $400,000
5 Shackleford will head straight to the front with 1 Emcee up with him who should sit off of him. 2 Jackson Bend, 4 Calibrachoa, and 1a Tahitian Warrior should be right off the pace as well.  I think the race should set up for 3 Caleb’s Posse closing kick and he’s also the only multiple G1 winner in the filed.

Let the record show that Brad Free, Mike Welsch, and Dave Litfin of Daily Racing Form are with me regarding 3 Caleb’s Posse but Mike Watchmaker is aboard 4 Calibrachoa.

Race 11: Clm 10000B Purse $22,000
Somebody do me a favor and text me to not play this race while I am at the track. After such a good card with quality stakes races why does NYRA run this type of race that should be at Charlestown (yes, I’ve been there)? If I bet this race, it’s DIME SUPERS for me. Yes, the last few picks were quite chalky on my part but this race is one of those races that gives the sport a bad name. 2 Heiden was bought for $7500 by Michael Dubb is now running for a 10k tag and a 22k purse (do I see an incentive to juice him up?). If he breaks down and is euthanized Saturday night will ANYBODY be surprised? 4 Tale of Lucknfame should be on the pace and is stepping up from the $7500 tag level. 13 Molly’s Ship is dropping from the 52k Allowance level to a 10k claimer (his last win 4 races back) and for you “bet the gray horse” people, he’s your play. AE 16 Digital Joe is stepping up to 10k from 7500 and should be on the pace.If I play a late pick 4, I’ll throw in those 3 and the favorite and the longshot but I think one of those three should be the favorite.

If you want a few long shot “spot plays” I’d recommend the DRF’s Game Plan plays.
Race 8: 4 Phil Dancer (20-1 ML). Won his last two and can close in a race full of speed.

On that note, have a great time at Aqueduct Saturday.

Aqueduct, Saturday March 3

As usual on a Saturday I won’t get out to what Sandy Levine dubs The Mecca until about 3 pm. I have to disagree with Mr. Levine as I would dub Aqueduct horse racing’s Vatican or St. Peter’s Basilica as I am pretty certain that it’s the only racetrack in the world that had a pope celebrate a Catholic Mass. That said, let’s get right along with my picks for the day.

These picks are done well before the changes and scratches so I leave out the MTOs and AEs.

Race 6: MdSpWt75k, Purse $75,000
As both of you know who read my blog, i play doubles and pick 3s so given this race, I’d take 5 Desert Storm (Mott, 2nd off, 78 Beyer in last),  8 Morgan’s Guerilla (Dominguez up, 80 Beyer in slop at GP), and 10 Term Loan (32% win with Violette/Garcia on inner track, solid Beyers in last 3: 76,79,73, and a good workout in last).

Race 7: Clm 75000B, Purse $37,000
I know. “Why play a $7500 claimer on the inner track? Do you like losing money?” I am keeping any wagers I make small and only have two ponies in my mix. 5 Galaxy Cat is doing the third start of the form cycle, dropping from 15k, and has the highest last out Beyer. Depending on changes/scratches, if 15 Wildlife Special gets in, he may get a pace to run at and close.

Race 8: MdSpWt60k, Purse $60,000
2 Flea Flicker (solid Beyers for this group, McGlaughlin/Dominguez combo wins at 63% at Aqueduct for 2011-12), 6 Sing Dixie Sing (3rd start of form cycle, highest Beyers of anyone running, though there are five first timers running), and 9 Satin Sheeks (trainer Mike Hushion wins at 33% at this meet, fave in last race, 53 Beyer, Johnny V up).

Race 9: The Tom Fool Handicap Grade 3, Purse $200,000
I am liking 6 Caleb’s Posse as his best Beyers out of the lot are great but he should also get a hot pace to run at and potentially score. My worry is that long layoff since the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile score in November 2011 where it was a “romp”. So as a hedge, I’m throwing in 5 Calibrachoa (2 for 3 at Aqueduct, G3 Toboggan winner, 2nd off, won this race last year though it was on the inner track) as the pace should set up for him, and I’d also throw in 4 Emcee (107 Beyer last out, gets the cut back in distance, and McGlaughlin/Johnny V combo scores at 35% in 2011-12)

Race 10: The Gotham G3, Purse $400,000
A thirteen horse field of 3 year olds makes the race wide open in my book so I decided to go crazy here. Yes I will have 12 Hansen (only true speed in the race) in the mix but at 6-5 on the ML I will be rooting against him for 1 My Adonis (post draw, good works), 3 Finnegan’s Wake (name alone, connections won the 2011 Remsen, though the horse is bred for turf and I may even toss but might throw in underneath as I can see him being another Paddy O’Prado), 6 Dan and Sheila (Plethcer/Johnny V combo with a bullet work), 10 Side Road (McGlaughlin/Garcia combo wins at 42% at Aqueduct and at 12-1 ML I will throw in), and 11 Done Talking (missed a score in the Remsem by a length, long layoff though)

Race 11: Clm7500N1Y, Purse $37,000
Another $7500 claimer I shouldn’t be playing but “when in Rome” right? I don’t like any horse in this race but I would play 10 Swinging at Siros (cut back in distance and Dominguez up but I am hoping for AE 13 Pistols at Dawn to get into the race  (so I can challenge Linc (@JLHallowell) to “pistols at dawn” in a duel for managing to make me play this race) as well as 15 Have You Ever (playing Beyers).

Well, those are my picks for Saturday March 3 at Aqueduct. If you agree or disagree, do let me know what your picks are as I’d love to know your opinion. I’m on Twitter @DenisSugrue (I thank you in advance for any follows).

2012 Movies

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Good thriller and demands your attention. Gary Oldman might get an Oscar nomination out of it and when does John Hurt ever give a poor performance? Best quote: “You Calvinistic penny pinching Scot!”

Young Adult. It’s marketed as a comedy in its trailer but it’s not. It’s actually a depressing story about a woman that is really fucked up. Looks like Coca Cola and BMW did the standard product placement again; recall a film from 2011 I viewed was POM Wonderful presents the Greatest Movie Ever Sold and the film makers were sponsored by BMW.

Hugo Like The Artist, this film is about broken people that need to be fixed and it honors film history particularly the life of Georges Méliès.  I thought it was a delightful adventure drama and the 3D effect worked very well though the film was a trifle too long though. It’s a good film about reconciliation and healing.

The Unknown (1927) A silent movie from 1927 starring Lon Chaney and the young Joan Crawford. Thankfully, the Film Forum in Manhattan has been showing silent pictures on Monday nights. After the success of 2011′s The Artist and Hugo, I would not be surprised if I see a few remakes of some of the classic silent movies.

The Iron Lady: was not a bad movie but slow; too slow. They blew it on the film focusing too much on Maggie Thatcher being a senile old lady with a penchant for drink rather than her years as PM.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: I wouldn’t recommend it for anyone particularly traumatized by Septmber 11, 2001 and I saw the film at the Regal in Battery Park City across the street from where such appalling horrors occurred.I was surprised that Thomas Horn did not receive a Best Actor nomination for his portrayal as Oskar Schell whose character may have Asperger’s. In my year’s of teaching high school, I’ve had some students  with such a condition and I dare say he nailed it. It moved a trifle slow to get to the point, as did Hugo but, like Hugo I thought it did a fine job regarding the theme of healing. Here’s my spoiler, so you can stop reading if you intend on seeing a few of the films before the Oscars but, one, I really wanted to know what was in the safety deposit box of William Black and second, why the hell didn’t they have Max von Sydow‘s character speak at the end?

Two minor items that came to me were: I thought they had Queens, NY down to a tee. The guy in Rockaway and the bar in Broad Channel were so suited to stereotype. I loved it (this author is from Queens and speaks highly of both Rockaway and Broad Channel). I also noticed Viola Davis (this and The Help) and John Goodman (this and The Artist) are both in two films nominated for Best Picture. I wonder if this is a first.

My Week With Marilyn I thought this was actually a very good film and a rather sad story. Michelle Williams was nominated for Best Actress for the film and after seeing the others. I thought she had Marilyn down: not in looks but in mannerism/voice etc.

Albert Nobbs: Since there were two nominees, Glenn Close for Best Actress and Janet McTeer for Best Supporting Actress, I figured I’d see it. Two outstanding performances for sure.

Bully: A documentary that certainly achieved its goal of making bullying a topic of conversation. I think educators, parents, and students should see it.

North By Northwest (1959) Queens, NY is where we have the Museum of the Moving Image (MOTMI) that has arguably the best cinema in the city and has an ongoing “See It Big” exhibit. I’ve only seen the film on TV and never in one sitting. By seeing it on the big screen, it’s now in my all time top ten.

Touch of Evil (1958) Once again, another MOTMI “See it Big” show. You can’t go wrong with Charlton Heston playing a Mexican and the great opening tracking scene is ruined by the car explosion.

Titanic (1996) My better half never saw the film as she was dating some pretentious asshole at the time who refused to see Hollywood blockbusters. A film good enough to stand on its own and did not need to re-released in 3D

Invasion of the Body Snatchers (1978) Another MOTMI gem. Not the cold war era classic but it does pay tribute to it.

Casino (1995) A Martin Scorcese gangster picture starring the usual crew. One can’t go wrong there. Seeing it on the big screen a second time and 17 years later, I noticed it’s funnier than when I first viewed the film and I found myself more compassionate toward Sharon Stone’s character. She was a hard core addict in the downward spiral throughout the film. Sharon Stone also did an excellent performance.
 Part of the Fashion in Film series at the MOTMI

American Gigolo (1980) The word that just describes this film is SORDID.

The Avengers (2012) Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man steals the show however, the film had about 20 minutes in it it didn’t need. I found it to be an enterataining super hero picture and loved the fact Harry Dean Stanton and Jenny Agutter were in in (She was in Logan’s Run!)

Aqueduct, February 4th.

Toboggan Handicap and The Withers must mean Spring is around the corner. It will be Wood Memorial time before we know it. So let’s dive right in and start with race 5 as there is a large Pick 6 Carryover today of $98,000.

Race 5: 6f Mdn 15000, Purse $29,000
If there wasn’t a pick 6 carry over, I’d stay away from this race altogether. A NY State bred maiden claimer. Yuk. 7 Hook and Lateral is an 8-5 favorite on the ML. Who the hell wants to play a horse in these conditions at such a price? 4 Digital Joe seems to be the play here 3 second and 2 shows in his ten races and given that he’s not running against, this gelding could score.

Race 6: 6f Correction100K, Purse $100,000
1 Nicole H looks to be my pick here. The Hushion/Dominguez combo win at 52% so far in 2011 and the trainer wins at 39% off the bench.

Race 7: 1m70yards MdSpW55k Purse $55,000
There is a $250,000 guaranteed pick 4 beginning with this race and that’s the only reason I’d play it. 1 Pearl of Wisdom ran a 65 Beyer in his last outing, 4 Wistful Wildcat ran a 51 Beyer and gets blinkers added. 9 Rkatsiteli ran a 54 and finished 3rd by one and a half lengths in his opening run.

Race 8: 6f The Toboggan G3, Purse $150,000
This is a tough field to pick and I really wish there was some sort of a closer running in this one.  When the scratches are posted, perhaps picking this one will be easier. 2b Calibrachoa last year’s winner will be on the lead with 6 JJ’s Lucky Train, 5 Diski Dance, 4 Rule by Night, and 3 Dr Disco. 1 Flat Bold, 2 Caixa Electronica, and 1a Candyman E sitting just off the speedsters. Since I see a blazing pace being set up it should bode well for either 2 Caixa Electronica or 1a Candyman E. The pace scenario should work for 1 Flat Bold but he has not won in his last nine outings.

Race 9:  1  1/16 mile  The Withers, Purse $200,000
On paper, this race looks to be  7 Alpha‘s to lose and he will be going out of the gate as odds-on. The McGlaughlin/Dominguez marriage has produced a 57% win rate at The Big A in 2011-2012 and the horse has shown bullet workouts. I might as well add that Alpha is by Bernardini who won this race in 2006. If you don’t like Alpha, you can find some value in this race as Alpha will be heavily bet.

Race 10: 6f Clm 7500N1Y, Purse $27,000
This might be the worst race  for me on the day: a 7500 claimer. I shouldn’t even play this race but, hopefully I am still alive in the Pick 4 and Pick 6It might be easier for me to write who won’t win rather than who will. I can’t even imagine how this race will play out but  if 10 Cantrushperfection runs an 82 Beyer as he did 2 races back, he should win easily. He’s also 3 for 3 on the inner track and the Dutrow/Dominguez combo produces a 42% win rate at Aqueduct. I think also 5 Hopeful Boy and 8 Keechi Bullet have shown decent Beyers that should be enough to win at this level.

These predictions were done before the changes and scratches of course. Good luck to the few of you that read this and play the races. Hopefully we all make money Saturday.

The 2012 Denis’ Film Awards

Here are my “Denis Awards” for the 2011 Films that I attended. This is purely meaningless and strictly subjective however, some critics and members of the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences may agree with many of my picks. It sort of sucks having to choose some of them as it’s so often a tough call but you have to decide.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees (Winner in bold with my reasoning)
Adrian Brody, “Midnight in Paris” 
Cory Still, “Midnight in Paris” (this guy had Hemingway down. Jolly good show)
Don Cheadle, “The Guard”
Jeremy Irons, “Margin Call”
Armie Hammer, “J. Edgar” (honorable mention: he really did a fine job considering his amount of time in the picture as well; in my book, he was nosed out by Cory Still. Good work Armie)
William Fichtner, “Drive Angry in 3D”

Best Supporting Actress
Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist” (this was a “no contest” in my book and the other four were all so good–Miss Bejo just got the better role in a better film)
Shailene Woodley, “The Descendants”
Bryce Dallas Howard, “The Help”
Marion Cotillard, “Midnight in Paris”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”

Camp Factor
Drive Angry in 3D (high quality camp entertainment)
Priest
Paul
The Hangover II

Quality Ultra-Violence Scene
Battle Los Angeles
Drive Angry in 3D
Unknown
Contagion (the societal breakdown where the man clocks a woman for MREs? Yeah, that’s what would happen)

Best Line:
“You Calvanistic penny pinching Scot!”, John Hurt, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
“That old cocksucker” Christopher Shyer, “J. Edgar” (the theater went ape shit when he said it)
“Speak to me as though you are talking to a small child” Jeremy Irons, “Margin Call”
“I didn’t get here by being smart”  Jeremy Irons, “Margin Call”
“I see a Rhenocéros!” Adrian Brody, “Midnight in Paris”

Best Comedy:
“Bridesmaids”
“The Hangover II”
“Paul”
“Horrible Bosses”
“The Guard” (sophisticated comedy unlike the others that were quite predictable and cliche) 

Best Director:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (no brainer: to edge out Martin Scorcese, Woody Allen, and Clint Eastwood means, you made a great film. Not bad company to be in)
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar

Best Actress
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo 
I had to flip a coin on this one as these were the two stand out performances by actresses in films I went to see in 2011 (Mara won 6-4). I have a hunch it may just be a two horse race but perhaps someone such as Glenn Close for that movie where she pretends to be a man or Meryl Streep for Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady” may win. I do think of the first few minutes of “The Help” where Viola Davis mentions her grandmother being a “house slave” and I said “She’s getting an Oscar nomination for this”–she was convincing. This is my weakest call.

Best Actor
Kevin Spacey, Margin Call
Brad Pitt, Moneyball/Tree of Life
Jean Dujardin, The Artist (demanding role in 2011 and you had to love the dog)
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (my pick for the Oscars though)
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard

Best Picture
“The Artist” (as a film, it was by far a better movie than the others)
“Contagion”
“Midnight in Paris”
“Margin Call”
“The Guard”

So those are my picks for 2011′s best films. I look forward to your comments and I hope you agree with many of my decisions. If not, I genuinely look forward to your comments. Tell me where and why I’m wrong.

My 2011 Favorites

That time of year again. Yours truly can now put together a year end list of his favorites and my reasons why. Enjoy!

Movie:
Those of you that know me know I love going to the movies. In 2011 I spanned the spectrum from “The Rite” and “Drive Angry in 3D” (on opening night mind you where there were eight people in the theater). 2011 had quite a few really good films but in my book, “The Artist” was just better.  Pulling off a silent movie in 2011 I consider an achievement. I expect to see this movie nominated for everything come Oscar time.

News Story:
2011 had all sorts of quality news. There are two news stories that struck me the most: one is an international event and one is strictly American. Sure, Osama bin Laden had a hit squad that he was asking for years take him out and then President Obama showed up with a swagger, Gadaffi, Joplin MO, the Royal Wedding, Kim Kardashian’s sham marriage, of course there was Charlie Sheen.

Internationally, the Japan earthquake/tsunami is #1 in my book.  The Japanese situation certainly gives anyone respect for the power of the sea: no wonder the ancients worshipped Poseidon (make that deity happy and maybe this won’t happen). I will also add that when a student of mine during that mess had her Facebook status as “I am proud to be Japanese”, I had to hit the “like” button. First there was the earthquake, then the tsunami, the human misery, the dog adrift, and then the nuclear reactor problem at Fukushima.

In terms of the home front,  the shooting of U.S. Representative Gabbie Giffords is my #1 story (and this was a tough call given the Charlie Sheen idiocy and Kim Kardashian’s marriage). The fact a mentally ill man put a bullet in the head of a US Congressional Representative: he shot 18 people, killing six among them a nine year girl and a Federal judge, is absolutely appalling. I have no issues with someone being able to buy a gun and to be frank, I think hunting is more civilized than factory farming but, somebody who is severley ill should not be allowed to buy a gun (I guess I just entered the NRA enemies list). I remember President Reagan speaking about the Challenger disaster and President Clinton speaking about the Oklahoma City bombing and I thought President Obama did a better memorial speech and could not have looked more Presidential when he spoke about those  those killed and he was right, Americans deserve a country as good as nine year old Christine Greene “imagined it”.

News:
CBS Evening with Scott Pelley. I thought NBC did great with Brian Williams which I watched and dropped to switch to CBS. Yes students, I watch the evening news on a network and you now think I am even older than I am but, fuck you, I remember Barbara Walters, Walter Cronkite, Harry Reasoner, Howard K. Smith, John Chancellor et al, and I think it’s great to see CBS get it’s MoJo back. Pelley can say “And that’s the way it is” now and get away with it.

The fact CBS smartened up, canned Katie Couric, who’s fine doing the TODAY show, and replacing her with Scott Pelley and they even threw in the old map from the Walter Cronkite years is good business.

TV Interviewer:
I have to go with Bloomberg Surveillance Midday’s Tom Keene. My two favorite books of 2011 I first heard about by watching his noon show. A broadcast that I think everyone should watch. I find it one of the most informative shows on TV. He gets excellent guests on his show, asks tough questions but he interviews people that know what they’re talking about so they can answer them. It’s an informative show and Tom can be quite funny
Tom interviews Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs

Go figure? Tom Keene interviews Jeffrey Sachs which leads to…..

Book:
Jeffrey Sachs’ “The Price of Civilization” which is something everyone needs to read given the US political situation. We do lived in a mixed economy. VERY honorable mention to “Triumph of the City” by Edward Glaesser. That was a joy to read.
Commercial:
This is a no brainer. Chrysler’s “Imported from Detroit” hands down.

I will given a VERY honorable mention to GE’s Aviation commercial.

Best CEO:
Alan Mulally of the Ford Motor Company does it again. He got a new contract with the UAW and reinstated a dividend as F-150s and Mustangs fly off the lot.

Celeb Death:
Usually when a celeb dies I say nothing. I felt bad when Amy Winehouse died. She was a talent but just had her own issues. Ah well I guess we can always remember her as young.

Political Scandal:
The Anthony Wiener tweeting scandal was the second best in my book. The man lived around the corner from me and it was funny seeing my friend’s home on the front page of the NY Times as he resides a few doors up from where Wiener was tweeting his famed erections. My only regret is that I did not use it as an opportunity to do some planking outside of his apartment building during the scandal.

Celeb Scandal:
I have to go with Arnold Schwarznegger and his pseudo-family living with him.He wins the “By Far The Most Déclassé Celebrity Award”

Favorite Video:
LMFAO‘s “I’m Sexy And I Know It” as it is the penultimate in idiocy

Favorite Child of My Friends:
I like having friends and intend to keep them so, maybe I won’t comment on this.

2011 Breeders Cup Analysis (Day 2)

Mixed reviews for day 1 and I was heart broken by Misty finishing third: she was so sharp but that bad break ruined it for her. If the stretch run at CD was a few feet longer, I’d have been one happy camper Friday. As usual, doubles and pick threes for me.

BC Marathon G2, Purse $500,000
1 Birdrun looks like a horse to play here. The Mott-Johnny V combo wins at 21% and the distance doesn’t seem to be an issue cosnidering his win in The Brooklyn on the 10 of June. 6 Brigantin is a turf marathoner and is running after a third place finish in France at 2 1/2 miles. He should be able to go full speed on this sprint for him.  7 Harrison’s Cave is a turf marathoner with turf pedigree but at 30-1? I’ll throw him in my mix.

BC Juvenile Turf G1, Purse $1,000,000
This race looks like it could be anybody’s. I’m certainly not going to lay a win bet or a trifecta. If 8 Majestic City, 13 Finale, 14 State of Play get into a speed duel at the front it might set up right for the closers and there are seven of them. 10 Animal Spirits, 12 Lucky Chappy (Ire) (is State of Play his “rabbit”?) and 5 Wrote all look to be contenders. In my double and pick three, for this race I am hitting the ALL button.

BC Sprint G1, Purse $1,500,000
The pace of this race can and should set up for a closer such as 3 Aikenite, 4 Hamazing Destiny or 5 Jackson Bend. Of course, I probably said the same thing last year when 8 Big Drama wired the field.

BC Turf Sprint G2, Purse $1,000,000
I guess I am hitting the all button again in this double. Does this look like the type of race where the longest price on the board can score? Yeah. If you can’t afford such a ticket, you might like 8 Regally Ready, 10 Havelock, and 7 Hoofit.

BC Dirt Mile G1, Purse $1,000,000
Can I see a repeat of the 2011 Kentucky  here with 2 Shackleford wiring the field for the first mile? Very much so. I think in this race, 1 The Factor will be up to the challenge to press Shack. A speed duel between the two could set up for an off the pace runner such as 7 Jersey Town or 9 Trappe Shot 

BC Turf G1, Purse $3,000,000
The five European runners all look good. Yes, we are into a pricey double and Pick 3. Why doesn’t Frankie Dettori have a mount today?

BC Juvenile G1, Purse$2,000,000
10 Union Rags is my horse to beat.

BC Mile g1, Purse $2,000,000
I’m rooting for 1 Goldikova to make her historic fourth consecutive BC Mile score. It is a tall or der and she is 6 now but hey, if there’s something this sport needs it’s for her to win. This sport needs superstars. I thought from a marketing perspective, she should have received Horse of the Year in 2010 over Zenyatta as what good is a champion that doesn’t run? The could have hyped this race up for an entire year but the rewarded a great horse that lost her swan song race. Play Union Rags, Goldikova, and Ice Box (only closer in the Classic right?) in a pick 3 for a $1 then buy your better half something nice or dine at a steakhouse

Remember, we’re also rooting for Goldikova’s groom this year too.

BC Classic G1, Purse $5,000,000
I’ve been over analyzing this race for days. Mike Repole, ever the salesman, is touting 12 Uncle Mo something fierce. According to horse racing guru Vic Zast, “Smartass Mike Repole ended his portion of the press conference by saying that he believed Uncle Mo would beat Frankel at a mile on the dirt, causing European turf writers to let out with a laff. There was doubt in Todd Pletcher’s voice as he discussed Uncle Mo’s ability to get 1-1/4 miles. Repole said Pletcher told him 9 Stay Thirsty would go into Classic better than when he was before the Jim Dandy and Travers.” Then there is 5 So You Think an beast from New Zealand that has been running in Europe.

Of course, there is always 6 Ice Box, a horse that has no business in this race (but hey, if you want a ridiculous long shot in this race, play him). Then there’s my girl 10 Havre de Grace who is 14 for 14 in the money for her career with 8 wins, 4 places and 2 shows.

My intial impression was that 2 Flat Out would win this race. He’s older than all but So You Think and 11 Headache. Let the record also show that he is the consensus pick Daily Racing Form. I can see the Classic playing out to something similar to the 2011 Suburban at Belmont so my horses in this mix will be Havre de Grace, Flat Out, So You Think, and my crazy, logic of illogic horse will be Ice Box.

Breeder’s Cup 2011 Analysis (Day 1)

Here is my analysis for the 2011 Breeders’ Cup and some predictions to how the races unfold. As last year, I will be playing Doubles and Pick 3s all the time. Any exacta’s or triples, I’ll mention them. Some of my pick threes may be a tad costly initially (after all, we are ALL winner Friday, yes?)

BC Juvenile Sprint, Purse $500,000
6 Secret Circle looks like a no brainer and a single even as an odds on favorite. Trainer Bob Baffert looks like he can potentially have 3 wins this day. Brian Meehan trained 5 Shumoos is a G3 winner back in September and at 15-1, underneath he does looks like a bit of value.  Secret Circle should head to the front with Jake Mo, Holdin Bullets, Seeker, 9 Vexor, and  4 Trinniberg challenging him early. When the race is finished, I am seeing Secret Circle as clear winner with Vexor, Shumoos, and Trinnberg boxed off in the exacta and trifecta underneath.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf G2, Purse $1,000,000
This looks like a much tougher race to handicap. Favorite 10 Elusive Kate looks to be a deserving favorite. Todd Pletcher trained 6 Sweet Cat should set the pace with 2 Dayatthespa. We should be in for an exciting stretch run with several closers in the race. I can also see 3 Up, 5 Stephanie’s Kitten, and 14 Somali Lemonade adding to the excitement. I’ll be boxing Elusive Kate with Somali Lemonade in my exacta. Those two and Up will be used to begin my next Double and Pick 3.

BC Filly and Mare Sprint G1, Purse $1,000,000
This is another tough race to pick (ah, the joys of the Breeders Cup!). 1 Irish Gypsy, 4 Champagne d’Oro, 7 Tar Heel Mom, 9 Golden Mystery should head to the front with 3 Turbulent Descent, 5 Musical Romance, 6 Switch, 8 Tanda, 9 Golden Mystery, 10 Tamarind hall, 12 Pomeroy’s Pistol, sitting in mid pack with 11 Her Smile, 13 Shotgun Gulch in the back.  The final quarter of a mile we should enjoy a nice cavalry charge where I can see either Pomeroy’s Pistol or Turbulent Descent prevailing. If you want to throw a double horse or two into you mix, I would take a second look at Tar Heel Mom (ran a 101 Beyer at Saratoga in The Honorable Miss) and Her Smile.(Pilot change to Johnny V and beat Turbulent Descent and Pomeroy’s Pistol earlier this year)

BC Juvenile Fillies G1, Purse $2,000,000
My immediate view was 9 My Miss Aurelia wires the field pulling away! But at a closer look, she’s not running against horses that pull carriages in Central Park. 1 Questing has the lineage (by Hard Spun), the trainer (20% 1st NA), odds (20-1 ML) and the jockey to make my double and pick VERY worthwhile. Bob Baffert has a 2 Candrea who has steadily climbing Beyers and will press Aurelia at the front. If a speed duel develops into a blazing pace with Candrea, Aurelia and 8 Homecoming Queen (has race 10 times asa 2 year old), 10 Northern Passion, and 11 Weemissfrankie might just close for an upset score.

BC Filly and Mare Turf G1, Purse $2,000,000
I think this will be the most exciting race of the day. I am breaking some rules here but I will be playing 12 Misty For Me (IRE) across the board and singling her in a bunch of crazy tickets. When I was a kid my dog was named Misty (she was the best looking dog there ever was and I get Misty just thinking of her. Of course, the fact she won four G1 stakes races (2 on soft/yielding turf), is by Galileo (by Sadler’s Wells), trained by A.P. O’Brien (38% 1st NA this year, 30% 1st Lasix), is at 10-1 on the ML,beat Midday two races back, and Moore up is just secondary.

Then we have 6 Announce (GB) a runner in france trained by Andre fabre with her usual rider up. 5 Nahrain is an undefeated three year old taking on older horses for the first time. She also has FRANKIE DETTORI up. 2 Stacelita looked great in Belmont’s Flower Bowl Invitational on Oct 1. If you want a longshot, try 9 Shared Account: she won this race last year at 46-1 on this carpet. This is my big bets race: I am singling Misty in EVERYTHING. And then boxing off Misty, Announce, Nahrain, and Stacelita in others.

That's my Misty

BC Ladies Classic G1 Purse $2,000,000
After being at Belmont to see Havre de Grace’s freak show performance in The Beldame on Oct 1, I have to go with 6 Royal Delta who was a beaten second. I also like 8 Plum Pretty the horse in the Kentucky Oaks I loved but didn’t get a bet in on (I am sure you can identify with that! “yeah man, we’ve been there”). 5 Ask the Moon is interesting at 6-1 because of the jockey change back to Javier Castellano (scored 2 times with her at The Spa from the front).

Belmont Park Saturday October 1

Where has the time gone? Each year seems to go faster. Seems like yesterday I was watching Haynesfield wiring the field in The Jockey Club Gold Cup and the next thing you know we are back again. I won’t be able to attend this Divine Liturgy until Race 5 so, from 5 to 10 will be my picks. As usual, I will be playing doubles and pick threes.

Race 5: Flower Bowl Invitational G1, Purse $500,000
2 Dynaslew looks to be the only pace in the field so I see her going to the front with 1 Deluxe, 5 Gitchee Goomie and 8 Stacelita sitting off the pass with 3 Emerald Beech, 4 Aruna, 6 Distorted legacy, and 7 Senada bringing up the rear. By the top of the stetch I am seeing Stacelita reeling in Dynaslew by the top of the stretch and Deluxe showing some kick in the stretch. Aruna looks like she should have some giddyap in the tank for the run down the lane. I see Deluxe winning with Stacelita, Dynaslew, and Aruna completing the super

Race 6:The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1, Purse $500,000
How many people are going to have 1 Cape Blanco singled on their multi-race tickets? He does look like a FREAK. That said, 5 Winchester has won his last two G1s at Belmont: This race last year and the G1 Manhattan on the fifth of June 2010. If you are looking for “value” 3 Dean’s Kitten and 4 Mission Approved might be alluring. The former has been collecting a check in every race since March, gets a jockey change to Dominguez, by Kitten’s Joy (El Prado) and if you read Brian Pochman’s commentary in the DRF, the 4th, 5th, and 6th finishers in the Arlington Million all won their next outings. Where did Dean’s Kitten race last? The Arlington Million. Mission Approved is interesting in that he won the G1 Manhattan on Jun11 (turf was yielding). Perhaps if he sets a slow enough pace, he may be able to hold on. In totality, I have to think Cape Blanco with Dean’s Kitten and Winchester underneath and Mission Approved completing the Superfecta.

Race 7: The Vosburgh G1, Purse $350,000
I see 4 Euroears and 6 Big Drama getting involved in a  speed duel up front which should set up for 8 Trappe Shot to catch them.

Race 8: The Kelso Handicap G2, Purse $200,000
I think 5 Sangaree should set the pace with 3 Uncle Mo, 1 Jersey Town, and 4 Golddigger’s Toy sitting off while 2 Jackson Bend brings up the rear. From the 1/2 mile pole through the middle of the turn the stalkers press Sangaree with Jackson Bend firing.  I can see Jackson Bend edging out Jersey Town and Uncle Mo by the time they hit the wire.

Race 9: The Beldame Invitational G1, Purse $350,000
Like Cape Blanco, the overwhelming majority of humanity will have 5 Havre de Grace singled in everything. I can not see a reason to disagree (after all, Blind Luck is not running). I suppose if you want to get a trifle bold, 2 Royal Delta and 1 Life At Ten might be of interest.  The former has won the Alabama and Pimlico’s Black Eyed Susan, third start of the form cycle, Mott/Lezcano have won at 30% this year. As for the latter, she won this race last year and trainer Todd Pletcher has won at 24% this year with blinkers on.

Race 10: The Jockey Club Gold Cup G1, Purse $750,000
If this was not the Gold Cup, I wouldn’t bet on it (OF COURSE,  I wouldn’t!) 4 Stay Thirsty is the second favorite on the ML and rightfully so: third start of form cycle, coming off two nice wins at Saratoga with career high Beyers, and has the Pletcher/Castellano exacta (23%) going for him. Judging from his past performances, it means he REALLY likes Saratoga (can you blame him?). Originally I was not liking him to win but, as I look closer, the others have not done much. I do like 1 Flat Out: watch the 2011 Woodward video and you see he was wide on BOTH turns (even if he was inside, he may still not have had enough left to catch Havre de Grace but judging by his past performances, who has he really beat? Perhaps Grace ran against a weak field???) 3 Rodman is interesting and unlike the Thirsty $5.20 or Flat out $4.80, Rodman should give you $18 IF he sticks to his “every other race” kind of form. Let’s not forget 5 Drosselmeyer (Mott/Lezcano at 30% on the year) and 4 for 4 in the money at The Big Sandy (2 wins, 2 placings).

Rodman and 1a Birdrun set the pace with Thirsty, Drosselmeyer, and Flat Out sitting off with A.U. Miner and Ice Box bringing up the rear. By the 1/2 mile pole, Rodman should begin to show fatigue and Stay Thirsty, Flat Out and Drosselmeyer should pass him by the time they hit the top of the lane and perhaps Miner can come up to finish off the superfecta. How I yearn for those easy days of Mineshaft and Saint Liam at Belmont. How easy was that?

I’ll be on the second floor clubhouse at Belmont and if you catch me there, be sure to say hi! Good luck to you.